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Stationarity Tester

Run ADF and KPSS tests on a price series, display p-values with plain-English interpretation, and show transformed series achieving stationarity.

Feb 23, 2026, Eric

The Core Idea

Most price series are non-stationary — they trend upward or downward over time. Running correlations, regressions, or most statistical tests on non-stationary data produces spurious results. Before applying any quant model, you must transform prices into a stationary series (typically log returns or first differences). This tool runs two complementary tests — ADF and KPSS — to verify whether your series is stationary and shows you the transformations that achieve it.

Data Input

CSV columns: close or price (required)

500 observations loaded

Series & Transformation

Raw Price Series

99.13110.44121.75133.07144.38Observation

Test Results — Raw Prices

Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF)

Non-stationary

H₀: Series has a unit root (non-stationary)

Test stat: -1.8793p-value: 0.3379
1%: -3.4305%: -2.86010%: -2.570

KPSS

Non-stationary (reject at 1%)

H₀: Series is stationary

Test stat: 0.9884
10%: 0.3475%: 0.4631%: 0.739

Stationarity Summary Across Transformations

TransformADF StatADF p-valueADF VerdictKPSS StatKPSS Verdict
Raw Prices-1.8790.3379Non-stationary0.9884Non-stationary (reject at 1%)
First Differences-9.0140.0050Stationary (p < 0.01)0.1811Stationary (fail to reject)
Log Returns-9.0090.0050Stationary (p < 0.01)0.1879Stationary (fail to reject)

What This Means

Raw prices: ADF p-value = 0.338. The raw series is non-stationary — as expected for a price series with a trend. Running regressions or computing correlations on this data would give misleading results.
Log returns: ADF p-value = 0.005. After taking log returns, the series is stationary. This is the standard transformation for financial time series — safe to use for modeling, correlation analysis, and backtesting.
Combined verdict: Classic result — raw prices are non-stationary but log returns are stationary. Use log returns for all downstream analysis.